The Second Great Depression

IN AMERICAN FINANCE & CRYPTO — THE ATLANTIC

At least four major factors are terrifying economists and weighing on the recovery

In Alabama, gyms are back in business.

In Georgia, restaurants are seating customers again.

In Texas, the bars are packed.

And in Vermont, the stay-at-home order has been lifted.

People are still frightened. Americans are still dying. But the next, queasy phase of the coronavirus pandemic is upon us. And it seems likely that the financial nadir, the point at which the economy stops collapsing and begins growing again, has passed.

At this fraught moment, no one knows enough about consumer sentiment and government ordinances and business failures and stimulus packages and the spread of the disease to make solid predictions about the future. The Trump administration and some bullish financial forecasters are arguing that we will end up with a strong, V-shaped rebound, with economic activity surging right back to where it was in no time. Others are betting on a longer, slower, U-shaped turnaround, with the pain extending for a year or three. Still, others are sketching out a kind of flaccid checkmark, its long tail sagging torpid into the future.

Excitement about reopening aside, that third and most miserable course is the one we appear to be on.

At least FOUR major factors are terrifying economists and weighing on the recovery:

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